Trade Setup for September 30
As we approach the end of September, the stock market continues its robust performance, marking the third consecutive week of gains. The 30-share BSE Sensex recorded an impressive increase of 1027.54 points, translating to a 1.21% rise, culminating in a new all-time high of 85,978.25 points on Friday. In contrast, it has closed at 26,178.95 points. During this bullish phase, sectors such as Auto, Oil & Gas, Metals, and Pharmaceuticals have shown strong upward momentum. However, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have exhibited a selling trend, creating a complex market landscape.
Quarterly Results Ahead
The upcoming Monday will be the final trading day of the quarter, subsequently ushering in the release of corporate quarterly results. This raises the critical question: can the market sustain its upward trajectory in the interim? The Nifty Bank index has played a pivotal role in this recent rally, and the banking sector’s quarterly results could significantly influence the market’s direction.
Key Factors to Monitor This Week
Several factors are expected to shape market sentiment this week:
- Credit Card Defaults: There are rising concerns surrounding an increase in credit card defaults, which may pose challenges for banks.
- Middle East Tensions: Escalating tensions between Iran, Israel, and Hezbollah, particularly in Lebanon, could impact global market stability.
- US Jobs Data: The upcoming US jobs data release on October 4 will be another focal point for market participants, following a period of stock market growth bolstered by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts.
Nifty Chart Insights
According to Nagaraj Shetty of HDFC Securities, the Nifty index has formed a long bull candle on its weekly chart, indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend. Although consolidation is expected in the coming sessions, he foresees a resumption of the upward trend, with downside support now positioned at 25,900.
Amol Athawale from Kotak Securities recommends a tactical approach for short-term traders, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips and selling on highs. Key levels to watch are 26,100 and 26,000 for Nifty, while the significant resistance level is identified between 26,400 – 26,500. Traders are advised to consider exiting their long positions should the index fall below 26,000.
Expert Opinions on Nifty Bank
Recent trading in Nifty Bank has shown signs of weakness, with a near 550-point dip from its previous rally, causing the index to close below the 54,000 mark. Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C Mehta Investment Intermediates notes that the formation of a bearish Marubozo candle on the daily chart indicates underlying weakness, although it still remains above the breakout point of a rounding bottom pattern. He anticipates immediate resistance at 54,000 and 54,500 levels, with the potential for a decline towards 53,350 – 53,400. Should this scenario unfold, it may present an attractive buying opportunity for discerning investors.
F&O Segment Insights
Stocks with Fresh Long Positions
The following stocks saw fresh long positions added on Friday, indicating increases in both price and open interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Granules India | 2.16% | 148.84% |
| Colgate-Palmolive | 3.01% | 29.77% |
| LTIMindtree | 0.34% | 22.46% |
| Berger Paints | 0.95% | 18.58% |
| BPCL | 6.58% | 17.09% |
Stocks with New Short Positions
On the flip side, the following stocks experienced new short positions, marked by price declines and increased open interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Marico | -0.40% | 22.74% |
| Birlasoft | -1.79% | 18.67% |
| IEX | -1.69% | 18.38% |
| Hindustan Copper | -0.26% | 16.14% |
| Bandhan Bank | -0.44% | 8.59% |
Stocks Showing Short Covering
Short covering was noted in the following stocks, which saw price increases alongside reductions in open interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| GAIL | 2.36% | -9.87% |
| Syngene | 1.02% | -6.02% |
| REC | 2.64% | -5.21% |
| Atul | 1.64% | -5.10% |
| Canara Bank | 2.09% | -4.99% |
Market Actions to Watch on September 30
Several significant developments are anticipated:
- Bharat Electronics Limited: The Ministry of Corporate Affairs approved the formation of “BEL IAI Aerosystems Private Limited,” a joint venture with Israel Aerospace Industries Limited as of September 25, 2024.
- Punjab National Bank (PNB): The board has greenlit the allotment of approximately 48.19 crore equity shares to eligible institutional buyers at ₹103.75 per share, totaling around ₹5000 crore.
- Reliance Industries Limited: On September 28, RIL announced that the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting approved the transfer of Viacom18 Media Private Limited’s non-news television channels to Star India Private Limited, following conditions set by the Competition Commission of India (CCI).
- Tata Motors: The company recently laid the foundation for a new vehicle manufacturing facility in Tamil Nadu, which will operate entirely on renewable energy, creating over 5000 jobs.
- Lupin Pharmaceuticals: The US FDA conducted an inspection of Lupin’s Pithampur Unit-1 facility between September 16 and September 27, concluding with three observations for both API and finished products.
- Zydus Lifesciences: The company received final approval from the USFDA to produce enzalutamide capsules for treating metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.
- HDFC Life Insurance: The company is set to raise ₹1500 crore through non-convertible debentures, following board approval for the issuance of ₹1,000 crore with an option for ₹500 crore additional through greenshoe placement.
(Disclaimer: The views and advice expressed in this article are those of the analysts and brokers. Readers are encouraged to consult a certified expert before making any investment decisions.)
