Upcoming Assembly Elections in Jammu and Kashmir
On September 18, elections are set to return to Jammu and Kashmir after a decade-long gap, with 24 assembly seats up for grabs. The first phase of voting will predominantly take place in the Muslim-majority regions of South Kashmir, where 16 out of the 24 seats are located. The remaining eight seats are situated in the Jammu division. Notably, eight of these 24 seats are newly delineated or renamed following the delimitation process conducted in 2022, marking a significant change in the political landscape of the region.
Candidate Overview
A total of 219 candidates will be vying for these seats, making it a competitive arena. Among these is the Kokernag seat, which is reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST) for the first time in a state election, featuring a diverse lineup of 10 candidates.
Historical Context: The 2014 Elections
The last assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir were held in 2014, where the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti, emerged victorious in 11 out of 21 seats in the first phase of elections after the delimitation. The electoral dynamics at that time saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress both securing four seats each, while the National Conference (NC) and Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) managed to win one seat each.
Vote Share Analysis
In the 2014 elections, the PDP held the highest vote share among the four major parties at 31.28%. This was followed by the NC with 24.15%, the Congress at 19.33%, and the BJP with a 14.6% share. This data illustrates the competitive nature of the political parties in this critical region.
Developments Post-2019
In the 2019 elections preceding the abrogation of Article 370 and the 2022 delimitation, the Congress party emerged as the frontrunner in the assembly constituencies, achieving the highest votes in nine segments. The NC followed with victories in six segments, the PDP in four, and the BJP in two. These results further highlighted the shifting political allegiances and the evolving electoral landscape in Jammu and Kashmir.
Current Political Dynamics
In the most recent Lok Sabha elections in 2024, the NC led in 11 assembly seats, the PDP secured five, while the Congress and BJP captured four and three seats respectively. Interestingly, while the BJP and PDP are contesting the elections independently this time, the Congress and NC have come together under the INDIA alliance, though they are engaged in a “friendly fight” in key areas such as Banihal, Doda, and Bhaderwah.
Rivalries and Alliances
Despite being part of the INDIA Bloc at the national level, the long-standing rivals, NC and PDP, have opted not to collaborate for these assembly elections. This absence of cooperation signifies the complex and often contentious nature of politics in Jammu and Kashmir, where historical rivalries frequently shape electoral tides and governance.
